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JUPITER SCIENCE

Probability Problem: Suppose you roll a fair die two times. Let 𝐴 be the event “THE SUM OF THE THROWS EQUALS 5” and 𝐵 be the event “AT LEAST ONE OF THE THROWS IS A 4”. Solve for the probability that the sum of the throws equals 5, given that at least one of the throws is a 4. That is, solve 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵).

Solution

We have

A = (1,4), (2,3), (3,2), (4,1)

B = (1,4), (2,4), (3,4), (4,4), (5,4), (6,4), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,5), (4,6)

\( P(A|B) = \dfrac {P(A∩B)}{P(B)} \)

\( A∩B = (1,4), (4,1) \)

The sample space comprises of 6×6 = 36 events
Hence,
\( P(A∩B) = \dfrac{2}{36} = \dfrac{1}{18} \)
\( P(B) = \dfrac{11}{36} \)

Thus,

\( P(A|B) = \dfrac {\dfrac{2}{36} } { \dfrac{11}{36} } \)

or

\( P(A|B) = \dfrac{2}{11} \) (Required probability)

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